Portugal 1–1 DR Congo: Klement's Surprise Finalist Drops Points to a Debutant
Klement bet on Portugal reaching the final. Ronaldo's side could only draw 1–1 with DR Congo — a result that reinforces Klement's footnote about benching Ronaldo.
Portugal 1–1 DR Congo: Klement's Surprise Finalist Drops Points to a Debutant
Klement's most controversial prediction is that Portugal — not France, not Spain, not Argentina — reaches the final. The reasoning hinges on squad depth and a specific footnote about benching Cristiano Ronaldo. The opening 1–1 against DR Congo is the first piece of evidence that he might be onto something.
- Klement: Portugal top-2 probability
- 77%
- Klement: Portugal exit stage
- FINAL (lose to Netherlands)
- Klement qualitative flag
- "Ideally without Ronaldo"
- Klement: DR Congo top-2 probability
- 23%
- FIFA ranks
- Portugal #6 vs DR Congo #55
- Actual result, 14 Jun 2026
- Portugal 1 – 1 DR Congo
What Klement Predicted
Portugal cruise through Group K, beat Ivory Coast in the R32, edge Switzerland in the R16, beat Argentina in OT in the QF (squad depth), then beat England in a scrappy semi-final. The qualifier — quoted directly from the note — is that the model works best for Portugal “with Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, Bernardo Silva — and ideally without Ronaldo.”
What Actually Happened
Portugal started Ronaldo. DR Congo, World Cup debutants, held them to a 1–1 draw. Ronaldo struggled against a deep block. The bench — including the players Klement highlighted — only came on late.
The result reads as further evidence for Klement's footnote: when Portugal play their depth, they look like a finalist; when they build around Ronaldo, they look like a side that drops points to debutants.
The Squad Depth Argument
Klement's case for Portugal in the final isn't about the starting eleven — it's about the bench. Portugal can rotate effectively across a seven-game tournament in a way that Argentina, France, and England cannot. Specifically:
- Midfield: Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Rúben Neves
- Forwards: Gonçalo Ramos, Rafael Leão, João Félix, Bernardo Silva, Pedro Neto
- Defenders: Rúben Dias, Gonçalo Inácio, Nuno Mendes, João Cancelo
That depth pays off in the late knockout rounds — the moment Klement's 2018 (France) and 2022 (Argentina) calls were also built around.
Where the Risk Lies
Two scenarios kill Klement's Portugal call:
- Portugal don't win Group K. A second slip-up and Colombia or even Uzbekistan could top the group. Group winners get the easier knockout half.
- Martínez doesn't bench Ronaldo. If Portugal's coach prioritises the icon over the system, the squad depth advantage disappears. The DR Congo result is an early warning sign on this front.